Forex Supreme Course
What is Forex?
Forex is a market that was created in 1971 when
international trade changed from fixed to floating exchange rates.
The Forex Currency exchange was the best way to control
currency because the market determines the value of one
countries currency over another. The main difference between a
countries traditional market and Forex is the amount of money
that exchanges hands on a daily basis. On an average day, it is
estimate that $300 billion dollars is exchanged in the world
securities market. Want to guess how much money is exchanged
in the Forex market in an average day on a daily basis? 1 to 3
trillion dollars in one day. However, Forex is anywhere from
being a traditional world market for the following reasons:
• There is no trading floor
• All trades are done over the telephone and on computer
terminals in banks all over the world simultaneously
• The market is open 24 hours a day.
In a respect, Forex is very similar to your everyday stock
market in a couple of ways. First, the changes in currency rates
are caused by economical, political, and psychological factors.
Factors affecting the economy such as interest rates, inflation,
unemployment, and others affect the exchange rates on a
minute-by-minute basis. The state of the countries government
can significantly impact the exchange of their currency. If an
investor can not have confidence in a particular countries
government policy then it will show in the currency market.
One factor that is very important to remember when
exchanging currencies is that many times it is the expectation of
what is going to happen to a currency and not actual changes
themselves. For better explanation, let’s compare this idea to
something that could happen in America’s stock market. If
“Apple” was preparing to have an earnings forecast right after
Christmas, investors might grab a lot of Apple stock because they
expect the stock to rise after the earnings report. There is no
concrete evidence that Apple’s earnings were positive, these
people are simply speculating. Trading currency is the exact
same way, if an investor believes something good or bad is going
to happen to the state of ones country, they will trade the
currency based on this speculation.
The reason why many investors use charts and systems is
simply because trading currency is done very quickly. In order
to keep up with what exactly is going on and for the investor to
profit they must use technical charts and systems when major
levels of resistance and support are being reached. Experience in
predicting traders is how many currency exchange managers and
investors all over the world make their living. They understand
that “When XYZ happens” then “Average Joe trader is going
to do this” so “I need to do position myself this way to
profit out of this situation.”
As you will learn, there are many successful Forex traders
out there. It takes discipline, hard work, and experience. The
best way to explain exchanging currency is that it’s a constant cat
and mouse game. Follow our systems and we will teach you how
to catch and then bank your profits. Be disciplined and practice
good money management and you will succeed.
What are the basics of Forex?
Whether you are going to be trading Forex professionally or
just for fun part-time, there are some basics you NEED to learn.
The rest of this book will use many of these terms and you will
see them on a day-to-day basis while trading currency.
Exchange Rate- The value of ones currency in comparison to
another. For example if you see, EUR/USD 1.2100, 1 Euro is
worth $1.21
Currency Pair- Two currencies that make up an exchange rate.
Base Currency – The first currency in the pair. This also
describes the currency your account is traded in
Counter Currency – The second currency in the pair. This is
also described as the counter currency.
ISO Currency Codes – Below are listed currency codes, there
are many more, but these are the main ones:
USD = US Dollar
EUR = Euro
JPY = Japanese Yen
GBP = British Pound
CHF = Swiss Franc
CAD = Canadian Dollar
AUD = Australian Dollar
NZD = New Zealand Dollar
Currency Pair Terminology- This is basically the slang terms
for trading certain currency pairs.
EUR/USD – “Euro”
USD/JPY – “Dollar Yen”
GBP/USD – “Cable” or “Sterling”
USD/CHF – “Swissy”
USD/CAD – “Dollar Canada”
AUD/USD – “Aussie Dollar”
NZD/USD – “Kiwi”
FCM – Futures Commission Merchant. An individual or
organization licensed by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) to deal in the futures products and to accept
money from clients to trade them.
Forex ECN Broker- ECN simply means “Electronic
Communications Network.” Basically, the ECN of the Forex acts
similar to the stock market ECN, where market makers, banks,
and traders can have a real-time trading platform to make their
trades.
They can put and bids and offers either in or out of the spread,
making it possible for traders to make trades based on these
prices.
Counterparty- One of the participants in a transaction
Pip – The smallest increment a currency can make which is also
known as points. 1 pip = 0.0001 for EUR/USD. USD/JPY = 0.01
Pip Value – This is the value of the pip. Pip value can be fixed or
can be variable depending on the currency pair and the base
currency of your account. For example, the pip value for
EUR/USD is always going to be $10 for standard lots and $1 for
mini lots.
Here is how to calculate the pip value of the currency you are
trading:
Divide 1 pip by the exchange rate and then multiply it by the lot
size to get the base currency pip value. To convert the pip value
over to your currency value, simply multiply the pip value by your
exchange rate.
Lot- This is the standard lot size per transaction. Usually a
typical lot size is 100,000 units of the base currency, or 10,000 if
it’s what called a “mini” lot. Currency is even traded in what is
known as a “micro” lot. There are many dealers that will let you
trade any unit size, all the way down to 1 unit.
Spread- This is the difference between the sell quote and the
buy quote. For example if you see “ EUR/USD - 1.2400/03, this
means the difference in the spread is 3 pips. For a trader to break
even, their position must move in the direction of the trade equal
to the amount of the spread.
Margin – The deposit that is required to open or maintain a
position. A 1% margin requirement makes it possible for you to
control a $100,000 position with a $1,000 margin account.
Standard Account – Trading with standard lot sizes, usually
100,000 units of base currency.
Mini Account – Trading with mini lot sizes, which are generally
10,000 units of base currency.
Micro Account – Trading with micro lot sizes, which are usually
1,000 units of base currency.
Leverage- Using borrowed funds to gear your account. By
increasing your leverage, you can either gain or lose more funds.
Divide total open positions by your account equity to get the
leverage ratio. For example, if a trader has $2,000 in his account
and opens up a $200,000 position with $2,000 in his account , he
is leveraging by 200 times or 200:1.
Manual Execution – An order that is executed by a dealer
intervening.
Automatic Execution- An order that is executed automatically
without dealer intervention
Drawdown – The extent to which equity is lost through a series
of trades. This is measured from the height to the lowest,
commonly measured by percentage.
Support – Technical term where buyers outweigh sellers. The
prices will bounce off of a floor temporarily.
Order Types
Market Order- An order to buy or sell at the current market
price.
Stop-Loss Order – An order to restrict losses at a specified
level.
Limit Entry Order – An order to purchase below the market or
to sell above the market at a specified level. Your belief is the
price will reverse direction from that particular point.
Stop-Entry Order – An order to purchase above the market or
to sell below the market at a specified price, your belief is the
price will continue in the same direction it is currently.
OCO Order- One Cancels Other. An order where if one is
executed, the other order will be canceled.
GTC Order- Good Till Canceled – An order that stays in the
market until it is either filled or canceled.
Trading Styles
Fundamental Analysis Trading – This style of trading involves
analysis of macroeconomic factors of an economy, underpinning
the value of a currency and placing trades that support the
trader’s outlook of the economy.
Technical Analysis Trading –This style of trading involves
analysis of price charts for certain technical patterns of behavior.
Range Trading- This style of trading goal is to profit from buying
technical levels of support and then selling technical levels of
resistance. The upper level of resistance and lower level of
support is what defines the range.
Scalping – This style of trading involves frequent trading to gain
small gains over a short period of time. The trades can last from
a few seconds to a few minutes. This is the preferred method for
many online day traders.
Swing Trading- A style of trading that involves seeking profit
from short to medium terms in swings of the trends happening.
Trades can last from a few hours to many days.
Position Trading- A style of trading that involves taking a long
term position that is reflective of a long term outlook. The trades
can last from a few weeks to many months.
Discretionary Trading – A style of trading that uses human
judgment and decision making in every single trade.
Automated Trading – A style of trading that involves neither
involvement nor human decision making, it uses a preprogrammed
strategy that is based on technical or fundamental
analysis to automatically execute trades via an automatic trading
platform.
Trend Trading- A style of trading that tries to gain profit from
riding short, medium, and long term trends in price.
News Trading – A style of trading where a trader attempts to
profit from fundamental news announcements on a country’s
economy that will affect the value of a currency, usually trying to
gain short term profit immediately after the announcement is
released.
What you will need to trade Forex
• A Forex Trading Account - We recommend using
www.marketiva.com
• Money to invest in Forex – Only invest what you can afford
to.
• Forex Trading Software - I recommend using MetaTrader4
which can be downloaded for free at www.marketiva.com
What should I know to be
successful in trading Forex?
#1 RULE “Follow the system, limit your losses, and you
will succeed!”
I am going to make this first point very clear, because I
strongly believe it is the most important factor to remember. In
order to be a successful Forex trader, you must be willing to take
your profits and not look back.
The #1 mistake I see currency traders make is follow a trend,
news, or position too long. They have made up in their mind that
this is the trade where they can get 100+ pips and just forget
about what their system is telling them to do.
The reason systems are in place is to help limit your losses and
profits. By limiting the amount you are going to profit/lose, you
will be a long-term winner by keeping control of your trading
account. It’s really frustrating and sad to have a trader e-mail
me and tell me he lost his whole account because he held on to a
position for too long and ended up losing 50% of his money on
the trade.
#2 RULE: “Plan your trades first, and then trade what your
plan is telling you”
Next, you need to focus on planning your trades first, and
then trading your plan. Your job as the trader is to follow a strict
trading plan. Do you know who is going to write the trading
plan? You are! After you write this plan your job is a breeze
because all you have to do is follow the trading plan you have
devised yourself.
All you need to do is follow the rules of your trading plan
which should have a setup, entry, and exit. If you are doing
anything else, then you are simply complicating your job more
then it needs to be.
#3 RULE: “Don’t trade more then you can afford”
It never ceases to amaze me how many traders want to
invest their life savings into high risk investments. On any given
day, any trade can go from good to bad in a matter of minutes.
Do not trade more then you can lose!
While systems, trends, and services are all made to help you
improve your profits and keep you from losing, sometimes it is
inevitable that you will have a bad day.
I recommend trading in these terms, if your overall bankroll
for trading is $50,000 then never invest more then 2-3% on any
one trade. This would amount to a max of $1,500 per trade.
Stick to your principles regarding money management and your
system and you will do well in this business. Just imagine if you
were to invest all your money on one trend one day. What if all
of a sudden the trend took a steep downhill and you lost 50% of
your total money on that trade? How would you feel after that?
Not only would it take months to work your money back up, you
would lose a lot of confidence in your trading ability.
#4 RULE: “Don’t think of this in terms of cash, think of
this in terms of pips”
My advice to my traders is once you put the money in your
trading account, forget it is even cash. It’s harder to execute
trades when you think of them in turns of dollar bills. It’s better
to try and just win pips.
Have you ever wondered why at the casino all they use is chips?
It’s because psychologically, a gambler is much more likely to
gamble more and not be as worried if they are just throwing
around chips. Well, this isn’t quite gambling, but the same
concept should be used with Forex. Try to win pips, don’t think
about winning money.
#5 RULE: “You are the boss”
Remember, you’re the boss of every trade you put into
action, you are the one that is responsible for failure or success.
You will not have anyone telling you to put in this trade or study
this chart.
You must be a self-starter and have an entrepreneurial spirit to
do this day in and day out. If you have never “been the boss”
before then you will learn how much of a responsibility you are
about to undertake.
You cannot find yourself getting too stressed out at the
market or market makers. Negative emotions will get you in a lot
of trouble and will show on your trades. Be sure to follow your
systems and not your emotions!
#6 RULE: “Be careful of your language and how you treat
yourself”
If you beat yourself up for making a bad trade, then you will
never be able to move on to make the good trades. Your mind
does not respond well to repeated abuse. Be sure to keep in
perspective of how you act when you win and win you lose.
Losing is a part of this game, and if you can’t deal with it, then
you are in the wrong game.
#7 RULE: “Fewer trades are better!”
Too many times I see my eager students want to get
involved in way too many trades too quick. They are trigger
happy and want to make a move on every trend or move they
see. My advice is until you really get a grip on trading is to not
make more then 2-3 trades at a time until you really get a
handle. I know this is contradictory to what many experts say,
but from my experience it can save you a lot of headache and
money. You need to learn the markets inside and out before you
are out there making 10+ trades a day.
#8 RULE: “Don’t consume your life with trading, enjoy
life!”
I understand how exciting trading can be, but it shouldn’t be
your life. If you allow yourself to be consumed by trading 99%
of your day, then in the end, your life will be very sad. You need
to get out and socialize with people, enjoy life! Take some of
your profits, go on a vacation, and find new interests.
After working with traders for so long, I began to notice a
trend in most of them. For a lot of traders, they are in this
because something is not right with their life. They are having
problems with their family, at their work, or just in general. They
almost look at trading as an escape from the world around them.
Folks, this is the wrong reason to be in trading. Fix your life
before trading and you will enjoy your time more!
#9 RULE: “How a Real-Time Trader Keeps Organized”
The fact is, it’s rough out there for a real-time trader. You
have to deal with data coming at you literally every moment of
your waking day. It becomes really hard to keep the big
perspective of making meaningful trades in your sight.
I highly recommend for any trader, especially real-time traders
to keep a traders diary. At the end of the day, you should be
able to say “Hello Diary, today I made this trade because of
this..” , “I probably acted the wrong way on this trade.. I won’t
make that mistake again..” , “Diary, this trend is really working
well, keep track of it in future trades.” It doesn’t matter how you
do it, whether it be written or just a blank Microsoft Word
document, the fact is it will help. You’re the only one that is
going to be looking at this document, so it doesn’t matter how
you write it, you just need to actually sit down and write it!
#10 RULE: “This isn’t gambling, this is trading!!”
I can’t stand watching Forex traders that make trades just
for the rush of making a trade. If you like throwing away your
money, then go for it, but if you are here to make profits then
you NEED to follow the signals, trends, and systems. If you are
bored, go rent a movie, don’t think “Wow, I think I can pull out 5
pips really quick if I do this, and if I lose who cares it’s just 5
pips.” My friend, that mentality will destroy you in the long run
of trading.
Keep trading to trading and keep gambling to gambling.
The Forex Supreme System #1 –
Easy Pip Gainer
While this system may seem very easy and simple at first glance,
it really has been my most profitable system to date.
Here is how it works:
1. Set up with any time frame you feel comfortable with. Your
trades will usually last no longer than a day, but some can
be longer.
2. In your charting software, which you can download at
www.marketiva.com, setup the following parameters on
your graph:
• Insert an MACD indicator using the following
parameters:
- Fast EMA 40
- Slow EMA 50
- Signal SMA 100
Or insert Moving Average of Oscillator (OsMA) with the
following parameters:
- Fast EMA: 40
- Slow EMA: 50
- MACD SMA: 100
3. You will be closely following the changes in value of the
MACD and OSMA in each and every price bar.
After you have setup the indicators on your graph, be sure to
follow the following rules:
1. Place a long (buy) trade when the MACD or OSMA value
at the current bar is greater than its value at the previous
bar.
2. Place a short (sell) trade when the MACD or OSMA value
at the current bar is less than its value at the previous
bar.
3. Stop loss and take profit are set at 50 pips. (That is for 1-
hour timeframe. Adjust accordingly for other timeframes.)
This system will work with any time frame you use. If you do not
have time to make intraday trades, then use this system on the
daily, weekly, or monthly timeframe.
If you are a day trader, you can use this system with your hourly,
or four-hour time frames. But don’t use this system for 5-minute,
15-minute, 30-minute timeframes. It’s because with these short
timeframes, a lot of noise and whipsaws will occur, and render
the system ineffective.
Here is an example of this system in action:
6 trades in 12 days. ALL WINNERS!
This was our chart from the period Nov 15th to Nov 29th. Over a
two week period we made 6 trades, profiting on every trade.
Follow the rules for the MACD indicator and you will be able to
profit on 85% of your trade. Again, this will work if you are
trading hourly, four-hour, daily, weekly, or monthly.
Here is an example of another trade using the Easy Pip Gainer:
24 trades in the span of the month of November. We charted this
one using the OSMA indicator. You can use the MACD or the
OSMA to make the trade, use whichever one you feel more
comfortable with. The first green dot resembles the first trade we
made as a buy. Each dot after that resembles when we
sold/bought/sold/bought.
The Forex Supreme System #2- Double
Indicator Assurance
16 trades in 23 days. ALL winning trades! Green Dots
represent buying or selling
This system is really reliable. I’ve found it to rarely fail me in all
the years I’ve been trading. Above is an illustration. We call it
the double indictor assurance because you have to examine two
indicators before you can make the trade. The success rate of
this system has been very good, you just really have to make
sure you are following the rules accurately.
Here are the steps to the system:
1. Your trade times will vary. There are some trades that can
last just a few hours, or there are trades that can last a
couple of days.
2. Okay, you setup the MACD (5,12,100) indicator.
Fast EMA: 5
Slow EMA: 12
Signal SMA: 100
3. Setup your RSI 21-period indicator.
4. Place a long (buy) trade when your MACD crosses “UP” and
your RSI moves ABOVE 50. I have drawn a red line on the
graph above to indicate the 50-value line. There are plenty
of trade opportunities when the RSI is above 50 and MACD
is crossing upward.
5. Place a short (sell) trade when MACD crosses “DOWN” and
your RSI moves BELOW 50. You can easily see when this is
about to happen, you just have to keep a good eye on both
indicators.
6. Close your trades at a profit/loss of 40 pips.
If you are going to use this method, you need to make sure
you have a close eye on your charts. For example, on October
31, the indicators said to BUY, and then later that day they told
you to SELL. On the other hand, the chart indicated to buy on
Nov 3rd and not sell until mid-day Nov 5th. Your trade times
will vary based on how the indicators respond to the market.
Here is another example of a winning trade, these trades were
done in the EUR/GBP
9 winning trades in a month! Time your trades at the right
time using the right indicators and you’ll always be a
winner!
As you can see, this system will work with any currency market
you are comfortable with. Be strict and make sure you follow the
MACD and the RSI. Both indicators must work together to make
the trade.
Conclusion
We’ve tried to outline everything you need to know about
Forex to be a successful trader. We believe the most important
factor to keep in perspective is in order to be successful, you
need to have a plan. Forex Trading can be compared to any
other investment out there, without planned entry and exit
points, it will be hard to ever come out ahead.
Forex Currency Trading is very fun and can be very
lucrative. I recommend learning everything possible out there
about Forex before getting heavily into trading. The systems we
outlined above are what we believe to be two of the best out
there today. Be prepared with all tools and a great learning
attitude and you should thrive in the wonderful currency
exchange market.
Rabu, 14 Januari 2009
way to the top
Way to The Top of Pips
May all your trades be successful ones
DISCLAIMER: We accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Any person is
hereby authorized to view this document for trading purposes. No part of the page/s may be redistributed,
copied or reproduced to be used in any form ofmedia or medium without prior consent and authorization
from TFE. Contact “Spudfyre” by private message at Forex Factory.
There is considerable exposure to risk in any foreign exchange transaction. Any transaction involving
currencies involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic
conditions that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency. The information contained
herein is not intended to be made available to any person in any jurisdiction unless expressly permitted by
applicable laws or regulations. Accordingly, if it is prohibited to make such information available in your
jurisdiction or to you {by reason of your nationality, residence or otherwise} then it is not directed to you.
Do not review the pages within this document unless you are certain that doing so is permitted by the laws
and regulations of the jurisdiction in which you reside, and by proceeding to review them you will be
confirming that this is the case.
We strongly advises clients to conduct thorough research relevant to decisions and verify facts from various
independent sources. Past performance should not be based as an indicative of future results. The risk of
loss in trading foreign exchange can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider this before
making any investment decisions.
If you have been following my journal entries in Forex Factory, you will notice that I
have been making extremely short term trades to capture small pips. This I have been
doing to demonstrate the use of stochastics over multiple time frames. I also wanted to
demonstrate that you can make low gain pip trades and make a consistent income from it.
Now, I will show you what I call the “escalator to pips”. From this time forward this is
the more often method I will be using to trade in my journal. I am providing you samples
of charts to refer to so that you may understand what dictates my decision making for a
trade. In my journal I will be trading live and invite everyone to discuss trades and ask
questions, or provide insight of their own.
Escalator to Pips Methodology
I use this only on GBPJPY however I am sure it can be used on any pair. One pair is
enough for me to concentrate on and earn pips from.
I set up 4 charts at 15 minutes (15M), 30 minutes (30M), one hour (1H) and 4 hours (4H).
I use and only need one single indicator, the stochastic slow set at 5,3,3.
Our trades are always initiated by a simple series of events that happens over multiple
time frame stochastics. If you need an explanation of stochastics you will not find it here,
please look on the Internet.
Entry Rules
1. Ignore the %K, %D cross.
2. Always wait for the 4H chart to lead our entry.
3. Long trades are entered when all 4 time frame stochastics are moving
upwards and the solid lines are all above or at 20.
4. Short trades are entered when all 4 time frame stochastics are moving
downwards and the solid lines are all below or at 80.
These four rules are our foundation for entering a trade. I wish it was this simple for
every trade entry, and most of the time it is. However, there are always some variances
to watch for and these are explained in the following charts.
Exit Rules (choose any of the below)
1. Exit at a pre-determined pip amount
2. Exit when you see a reversal in one or more time frames
3. Exit when the 15M hits the line (80 long; 20 short)
4. Exit when any of the other time frames hits the line (80 long; 20 short)
5. NEVER use the 4H chart 80 or 20 line to exit.
By looking at the exit rules you can see why I call this the escalator to pips. As we enter
a trade we will ride the 15M, then the 30M and finally the 1H stochastic chart to either
the 80 line (long) or 20 line (short).
Stops
I think I could actually write a book on stops. In fact this is one of the hardest sections to
write and keep short. So, I am just going to tell you how I use stops and leave it at that.
Stops are used to either protect my account or my profits. I never use a stop to stop a bad
trade. The stochastics stop my trade, not the stop. That means I am in full control of my
trade and it is based on the same exact method I use to make pips. I give my trade lots of
room…usually 70-100 pips away from price. My stop is going to get hit if there is
something abnormal happening in the world or the market, not because the stochastics are
wrong.
You can never lose taking profitable pips. You only lose when you lose a pip profit.
Always move your stop to protect your profits. Never cry over lost pips if you made at
least 1 pip. You’ll have another trade to make more pips, but how many pip losses can
you survive?
The more margin you have the less risk you’ll be at for any single trade. $500 mini
account traders carry lots of risk every trade…you have to accept this and have your next
$500 ready when something bad happens. If you are trading to protect $500, you are
going to have an extremely tough time making pips in Forex because you’ll simply set
too low a stop trying to protect too low a margin. I’m not saying you need to lose your
$500 on a single trade. What I am saying is don’t set your stops like you only have $500
to trade with…even if that is all you have.
If your in doubt about my stop theory. Sit and watch my trades in my journal and watch
how often I hit my stops or how much I lose from stops. Then look at how much I lose.
Then you will understand what I am writing about and you will have more confidence in
what I suggest.
Charts
All charts are only stochastic indicators from GBPJPY. All times are GMT. All charts
have stochastics from top to bottom of 15M, 30M, 1H and 4H. Vertical dashed line in
each chart identifies a significant time as discussed in each chart. Dashed horizontal lines
at the top and bottom of each chart identify the 80 (top) and 20 (bottom) lines.
I have purposely left the price out of each chart to show you that we do not need the price
chart to know where our trade is (although knowing how stochastics and price move
together is extremely beneficial). We really only need price to know how many pips we
are making, or how close we are to our stop.
Chart 1a – March 14, 2007 at 12:00 Long Entry
Every long trade you enter should resemble this chart. In this
sequence, the 15M is higher than we would like and the 4H has
just cleared the 20 line which is not ideal.
Notice every time frame stochastic for this long trade is above
20.
Notice too, that we did not enter this trade until the 4H crossed
the 20 line. There is a huge misleading idea in trading that long
term charts identify the trend. This is false. Long term charts
tell us only what the short term charts have been doing. There is
no guarantee because a long term chart is just starting an up
trend it will continue to go up. However, we do know if our
short term charts reverses, our long term chart will be affected.
You might think I’m splitting hairs on a definition here, but I
am not. I am trying to dispel a false train of thought that you
probably have. I don’t know how many times people state that
“the 15M is doing such and such but it is too short a time frame
to matter”. All I can say is “open your eyes, the 15M chart is
telling you something”.
Statistically we know that stochastics will behave a certain way.
I know in this situation we have about a 99% chance that we will
see continued up ward movement in price based on all four time
frames. The only thing I do not know is how far up the price
will move. What will dictate the limit of the move will be the
15M, the 30M and the 1H charts. The higher the time frame I
ride on the “escalator” the greater my risk is of a price move in
the opposite direction. However the higher up I go the more pips
I have already gained.
Getting back to my explanation of trends and time frames. Each
movement in a lower time frame will affect the time frames
above. It is the degree that a lower time frame affects a larger
time frame that will indicate what our price will do. Why?
Because lower time frame movements build longer time frame
trends.
You have to remember this to trade stochastics over multiple time frames successfully.
Chart 1b – March 14, 2007 at 16:00 Exit the Trade
All our exits appear at the same time; 16:00 however each
will give us a different exit price:
Entry was at 223.50 Long
Exit on 15M is at 224.14 +64 pips
Exit on 30M is at 224.07 +57 pips
Exit on 1H is at 224.81 +131 pips
The discrepancy here is exiting at highs, lows or closes
during each time frame. However, it does not matter, all
gained pips.
Look at the charts and you can see the 15Mchart going for
a wild ride up. If we pay attention to our other time
frames, especially the 30M as it is closest to the 15M, we
can see things are fairly stable.
Can you see how the 15M builds the 30M, the 30M build
the 1H chart?
I can tell the price is going to continue going up in the
15M chart because the downward moves on the 30M chart
and even the 1H chart are almost non-existent. As wild as
the 15M chart is, it is building an upward trend for the
longer time frame charts
The 4H chart during any trade is merely a reference point
to our direction and what the short terms are building.
I can show you a dozen more long trades and they will all
look like this. Shorts are just the opposite.
So how about something tricky and bad. Let’s go on to the
next charts.
Chart 2a – March 20, 2007 at 16:00 A Bad Trade Short?
As you can see by this chart our 4H has just crossed the
80 on the way down on March 20, 2007 at 16:00.
Here again we would much rather have the 15M and
30M much higher up the stochastic scale than they are
to jump into a trade. In fact you would have to consider
this a pretty risky trade because of where the 15M and
30M are together.
I will tell you that the 4H didn’t go down much further
in this trade when it was entered here. This is about as
bad as the trades go under “normal” conditions.
It is not an ideal trading position so already we are at
risk, There is a possibility that we could have enjoyed a
better trade since we could have entered the trade before
the 4H closed it’s candle. I don’t like to trade that way
unless the movement is clear or it is late in the candle.
However, I went with the trade here so let us see what
happened that turned this into a bad trade.
Chart 2b – March 20, 2007 at 16:00 A Bad Trade Short?
The 15M and 30M both turned up rather quickly.
Here’s what happened to price:
Entered short at 229.95
15M hit 20 at 229.38 +57 pips
30M did not hit 20
1H did not hit 20
Technically if you exited at 15Myou still gained 57
pips and hopefully you protected some of those
pips when you went to 30M.
When the 15M and 30M both turned up you should
be exiting but definitely when the 1H turned up and
closed.
So what would you have lost if this happened and
you waited for the 1H to turn up and close?
You actually would have gained about 4 pips and
lost that to your spread.
Here is a great example how the small time frames
build the 4H trend and why my stops are rarely ever
hit for a loss. During our trade the 4H is still
moving down and the net effect of the upward
movement of the short term charts was small.
Small enough anyways to allow us to gain some
pips.
The short term stochastics told us what was
happening and started to move up. It was time for
us to bail out when two moved against us and one
did not hit the 20 line. When 3 moved against us,
we were in trouble. At worst we would have hit our
profit stop.
The 4H didn’t lead us astray, it was just a weak
down turn and we entered this trade knowing there
was some risk attached. The short term stochastics showed us they were starting to build
an up trend and the 4H was just slow in reacting…which it always is.
Chart 3a – March 6, 2007 at 2:00 The Optimum Long Entry
This chart is a good example of the what
an optimum entry point looks like for a
long trade.
Notice first that the 4H actually led the
entry to the trade and broke the 20 line
first. This is the best possible situation as
we know that the lower time frames are
building a strong up trend.
The rest of the time frames have nice
parallel lines, they are all moving at the
same slope and all have their stochastic
lines about the same distance apart. In
other words the stochastics are almost
identical on each chart.
Just for the record, this trade would have
netted you anywhere from 50-200 pips!
Take this chart and post it on your wall
as a reference.
Chart 3b – March 7, 2007 at 2:30 The Optimum Short Entry
This is a chart of the optimum short entry setup.
This is an example of cheating a little and
entering when the 1H is halfway through the
candle. Trading live is much different than
looking at historic charts. During this time frame
the movement was quite simple to see.
Again the 4H leads the trade entry and the
downward stochastics of the other time frames are
making identical moves.
Another easy trade and the pips gain anywhere
from 90-200 pips.
Trading Forward Live
I left the price out of my charts in this document so that you would concentrate on the
stochastics. As you trade more and more using this stochastics you will learn how price
reacts to the stochastics. This is a valuable tool and becomes second nature to you
without even having to think about it.
Let the stochastics rule your decisions not the price. The price will move to make you
think you are wrong. The price movements are used to manipulate your decisions. The
stochastics tell the naked truth.
Practice with stochastics. Cover the price on your monitor and watch the stochastics
move over multiple time frames and write down what you think the price is doing and
will do. You will be amazed in a short time how well you can interpret what is
happening in the market and how you can “predict” moves long before they happen as
your brain absorbs the patterns.
Your greatest enemy will be human error and that feeling that you might miss a great
trade if you don’t act now. If you are feeling that anxiety, take a step back and think it
out. Am I too early? Too late? Does something not feel right? As you trade stochastics
learn to listen to your gut. It is actually your brain saying “this pattern is not right” or
“this pattern is right”.
Look at the charts I included here. This is about as close to fail-safe trading as you will
find. If you get into a losing slump go back and just trade the optimum setups until you
feel like a winner again.
Always, it is never about how many pips you make, but what the pips are worth that
counts!
May all your trades be successful ones
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making any investment decisions.
If you have been following my journal entries in Forex Factory, you will notice that I
have been making extremely short term trades to capture small pips. This I have been
doing to demonstrate the use of stochastics over multiple time frames. I also wanted to
demonstrate that you can make low gain pip trades and make a consistent income from it.
Now, I will show you what I call the “escalator to pips”. From this time forward this is
the more often method I will be using to trade in my journal. I am providing you samples
of charts to refer to so that you may understand what dictates my decision making for a
trade. In my journal I will be trading live and invite everyone to discuss trades and ask
questions, or provide insight of their own.
Escalator to Pips Methodology
I use this only on GBPJPY however I am sure it can be used on any pair. One pair is
enough for me to concentrate on and earn pips from.
I set up 4 charts at 15 minutes (15M), 30 minutes (30M), one hour (1H) and 4 hours (4H).
I use and only need one single indicator, the stochastic slow set at 5,3,3.
Our trades are always initiated by a simple series of events that happens over multiple
time frame stochastics. If you need an explanation of stochastics you will not find it here,
please look on the Internet.
Entry Rules
1. Ignore the %K, %D cross.
2. Always wait for the 4H chart to lead our entry.
3. Long trades are entered when all 4 time frame stochastics are moving
upwards and the solid lines are all above or at 20.
4. Short trades are entered when all 4 time frame stochastics are moving
downwards and the solid lines are all below or at 80.
These four rules are our foundation for entering a trade. I wish it was this simple for
every trade entry, and most of the time it is. However, there are always some variances
to watch for and these are explained in the following charts.
Exit Rules (choose any of the below)
1. Exit at a pre-determined pip amount
2. Exit when you see a reversal in one or more time frames
3. Exit when the 15M hits the line (80 long; 20 short)
4. Exit when any of the other time frames hits the line (80 long; 20 short)
5. NEVER use the 4H chart 80 or 20 line to exit.
By looking at the exit rules you can see why I call this the escalator to pips. As we enter
a trade we will ride the 15M, then the 30M and finally the 1H stochastic chart to either
the 80 line (long) or 20 line (short).
Stops
I think I could actually write a book on stops. In fact this is one of the hardest sections to
write and keep short. So, I am just going to tell you how I use stops and leave it at that.
Stops are used to either protect my account or my profits. I never use a stop to stop a bad
trade. The stochastics stop my trade, not the stop. That means I am in full control of my
trade and it is based on the same exact method I use to make pips. I give my trade lots of
room…usually 70-100 pips away from price. My stop is going to get hit if there is
something abnormal happening in the world or the market, not because the stochastics are
wrong.
You can never lose taking profitable pips. You only lose when you lose a pip profit.
Always move your stop to protect your profits. Never cry over lost pips if you made at
least 1 pip. You’ll have another trade to make more pips, but how many pip losses can
you survive?
The more margin you have the less risk you’ll be at for any single trade. $500 mini
account traders carry lots of risk every trade…you have to accept this and have your next
$500 ready when something bad happens. If you are trading to protect $500, you are
going to have an extremely tough time making pips in Forex because you’ll simply set
too low a stop trying to protect too low a margin. I’m not saying you need to lose your
$500 on a single trade. What I am saying is don’t set your stops like you only have $500
to trade with…even if that is all you have.
If your in doubt about my stop theory. Sit and watch my trades in my journal and watch
how often I hit my stops or how much I lose from stops. Then look at how much I lose.
Then you will understand what I am writing about and you will have more confidence in
what I suggest.
Charts
All charts are only stochastic indicators from GBPJPY. All times are GMT. All charts
have stochastics from top to bottom of 15M, 30M, 1H and 4H. Vertical dashed line in
each chart identifies a significant time as discussed in each chart. Dashed horizontal lines
at the top and bottom of each chart identify the 80 (top) and 20 (bottom) lines.
I have purposely left the price out of each chart to show you that we do not need the price
chart to know where our trade is (although knowing how stochastics and price move
together is extremely beneficial). We really only need price to know how many pips we
are making, or how close we are to our stop.
Chart 1a – March 14, 2007 at 12:00 Long Entry
Every long trade you enter should resemble this chart. In this
sequence, the 15M is higher than we would like and the 4H has
just cleared the 20 line which is not ideal.
Notice every time frame stochastic for this long trade is above
20.
Notice too, that we did not enter this trade until the 4H crossed
the 20 line. There is a huge misleading idea in trading that long
term charts identify the trend. This is false. Long term charts
tell us only what the short term charts have been doing. There is
no guarantee because a long term chart is just starting an up
trend it will continue to go up. However, we do know if our
short term charts reverses, our long term chart will be affected.
You might think I’m splitting hairs on a definition here, but I
am not. I am trying to dispel a false train of thought that you
probably have. I don’t know how many times people state that
“the 15M is doing such and such but it is too short a time frame
to matter”. All I can say is “open your eyes, the 15M chart is
telling you something”.
Statistically we know that stochastics will behave a certain way.
I know in this situation we have about a 99% chance that we will
see continued up ward movement in price based on all four time
frames. The only thing I do not know is how far up the price
will move. What will dictate the limit of the move will be the
15M, the 30M and the 1H charts. The higher the time frame I
ride on the “escalator” the greater my risk is of a price move in
the opposite direction. However the higher up I go the more pips
I have already gained.
Getting back to my explanation of trends and time frames. Each
movement in a lower time frame will affect the time frames
above. It is the degree that a lower time frame affects a larger
time frame that will indicate what our price will do. Why?
Because lower time frame movements build longer time frame
trends.
You have to remember this to trade stochastics over multiple time frames successfully.
Chart 1b – March 14, 2007 at 16:00 Exit the Trade
All our exits appear at the same time; 16:00 however each
will give us a different exit price:
Entry was at 223.50 Long
Exit on 15M is at 224.14 +64 pips
Exit on 30M is at 224.07 +57 pips
Exit on 1H is at 224.81 +131 pips
The discrepancy here is exiting at highs, lows or closes
during each time frame. However, it does not matter, all
gained pips.
Look at the charts and you can see the 15Mchart going for
a wild ride up. If we pay attention to our other time
frames, especially the 30M as it is closest to the 15M, we
can see things are fairly stable.
Can you see how the 15M builds the 30M, the 30M build
the 1H chart?
I can tell the price is going to continue going up in the
15M chart because the downward moves on the 30M chart
and even the 1H chart are almost non-existent. As wild as
the 15M chart is, it is building an upward trend for the
longer time frame charts
The 4H chart during any trade is merely a reference point
to our direction and what the short terms are building.
I can show you a dozen more long trades and they will all
look like this. Shorts are just the opposite.
So how about something tricky and bad. Let’s go on to the
next charts.
Chart 2a – March 20, 2007 at 16:00 A Bad Trade Short?
As you can see by this chart our 4H has just crossed the
80 on the way down on March 20, 2007 at 16:00.
Here again we would much rather have the 15M and
30M much higher up the stochastic scale than they are
to jump into a trade. In fact you would have to consider
this a pretty risky trade because of where the 15M and
30M are together.
I will tell you that the 4H didn’t go down much further
in this trade when it was entered here. This is about as
bad as the trades go under “normal” conditions.
It is not an ideal trading position so already we are at
risk, There is a possibility that we could have enjoyed a
better trade since we could have entered the trade before
the 4H closed it’s candle. I don’t like to trade that way
unless the movement is clear or it is late in the candle.
However, I went with the trade here so let us see what
happened that turned this into a bad trade.
Chart 2b – March 20, 2007 at 16:00 A Bad Trade Short?
The 15M and 30M both turned up rather quickly.
Here’s what happened to price:
Entered short at 229.95
15M hit 20 at 229.38 +57 pips
30M did not hit 20
1H did not hit 20
Technically if you exited at 15Myou still gained 57
pips and hopefully you protected some of those
pips when you went to 30M.
When the 15M and 30M both turned up you should
be exiting but definitely when the 1H turned up and
closed.
So what would you have lost if this happened and
you waited for the 1H to turn up and close?
You actually would have gained about 4 pips and
lost that to your spread.
Here is a great example how the small time frames
build the 4H trend and why my stops are rarely ever
hit for a loss. During our trade the 4H is still
moving down and the net effect of the upward
movement of the short term charts was small.
Small enough anyways to allow us to gain some
pips.
The short term stochastics told us what was
happening and started to move up. It was time for
us to bail out when two moved against us and one
did not hit the 20 line. When 3 moved against us,
we were in trouble. At worst we would have hit our
profit stop.
The 4H didn’t lead us astray, it was just a weak
down turn and we entered this trade knowing there
was some risk attached. The short term stochastics showed us they were starting to build
an up trend and the 4H was just slow in reacting…which it always is.
Chart 3a – March 6, 2007 at 2:00 The Optimum Long Entry
This chart is a good example of the what
an optimum entry point looks like for a
long trade.
Notice first that the 4H actually led the
entry to the trade and broke the 20 line
first. This is the best possible situation as
we know that the lower time frames are
building a strong up trend.
The rest of the time frames have nice
parallel lines, they are all moving at the
same slope and all have their stochastic
lines about the same distance apart. In
other words the stochastics are almost
identical on each chart.
Just for the record, this trade would have
netted you anywhere from 50-200 pips!
Take this chart and post it on your wall
as a reference.
Chart 3b – March 7, 2007 at 2:30 The Optimum Short Entry
This is a chart of the optimum short entry setup.
This is an example of cheating a little and
entering when the 1H is halfway through the
candle. Trading live is much different than
looking at historic charts. During this time frame
the movement was quite simple to see.
Again the 4H leads the trade entry and the
downward stochastics of the other time frames are
making identical moves.
Another easy trade and the pips gain anywhere
from 90-200 pips.
Trading Forward Live
I left the price out of my charts in this document so that you would concentrate on the
stochastics. As you trade more and more using this stochastics you will learn how price
reacts to the stochastics. This is a valuable tool and becomes second nature to you
without even having to think about it.
Let the stochastics rule your decisions not the price. The price will move to make you
think you are wrong. The price movements are used to manipulate your decisions. The
stochastics tell the naked truth.
Practice with stochastics. Cover the price on your monitor and watch the stochastics
move over multiple time frames and write down what you think the price is doing and
will do. You will be amazed in a short time how well you can interpret what is
happening in the market and how you can “predict” moves long before they happen as
your brain absorbs the patterns.
Your greatest enemy will be human error and that feeling that you might miss a great
trade if you don’t act now. If you are feeling that anxiety, take a step back and think it
out. Am I too early? Too late? Does something not feel right? As you trade stochastics
learn to listen to your gut. It is actually your brain saying “this pattern is not right” or
“this pattern is right”.
Look at the charts I included here. This is about as close to fail-safe trading as you will
find. If you get into a losing slump go back and just trade the optimum setups until you
feel like a winner again.
Always, it is never about how many pips you make, but what the pips are worth that
counts!
Minggu, 11 Januari 2009
Forex indikator
TIPS TRADING GBP/JPY
Hal-hal yang menarik adalah :
1. Pedoman Jum’at & Senin:
jika di hari Jum’at Down maka di Senin Up
jika di hari Jum’at Up maka di Senin Up s/d masa sideways
2. Pantau News/Meeting BoJ dan BoE –> efek pergerakan sangat besar ( > 200 pips), terutama BoE dan BoJ Meeting à tentu saja ya ? qqqqqqq……
3. Pantau Indikator Ekonomi BoE dan BoJ –> efek pergerakan besar (100-200 pips)
4. Masa Sideways 2-3 hari, dengan daily range = 60 pips, setelah sideways meluncurrr…. Itu berarti pergerakan running price yang dijaga sebesar 60-an pips. Jadi waspada jika GJ udah sideways 2-3 hari, di hari ketiga biasanya akan meluncur.
5. Bila price bergerak cepat dalam 1 hari (8-10 jam) mencapai 100-an pips, maka akan berbalik arah (reversal)
6. Jika running price bergerak dua arah reversal 60-80 pips, (< 100 pips), pergerakan ke-3 akan meluncur.
TIPS TRADING:
Persiapan:
1.Trading-lah hanya menjelang News GBP atau JPY, lebih aman lagi bila menjelang BoE atau BoJ Meeting.
2.Perhatikan apakah trend searah dengan GBP/USD dan USD/JPY, karena 3 pair ini berkorelasi positif dan searah, bahkan terhadap USD/JPY, Gajah berkorelasi sangat kuat +80 s/d +90-an. Korelasi negatif pada UJ dan GJ hanya dalam hitungan menit (15-30 menit), dan bukan Jam atau Hari. Sehingga lebih bijak jika pantau price GU dan UJ.
3.Perhatikan apakah GJ sdg masa sideways (2-3 hari), tandanya sideways à si Gajah naik-turun bingung sebesar 60-70 pips. Kalo nggak, lebih enak cek-nya pakai Bolingger (20). Kalo running price masuk saluran tertutup datar (deep tunnel), nah berarti si Gajah sedang sideways. Bila tidak sideways ok langsung entry, bila sideways siap2 di hari ke-2 dan 3.
Mengingat Inggris berkarakter kaku, keras dan dingin, sedangkan Jepang berkarakter keras, panas tapi luwe, maka sulit memprediksi pergerakan harga karena karakternya yg bertolak belakang 180 derajat, sehingga metoda scalping terlalu berisiko. Metoda yang tepat adalah sistem trapping dengan menggunakan Pending Order kombinasi Hegding (2 arah). Udah tahu caranya kan ? hanya saja untuk GBP/JPY pending ordernya sangat unik, begini :
1. Cek di pagi hari, berapa nilai price “Open” di Marketiva.
2. Di siang hari (jam 11.00 - 13.00 WIB), ambil Pending Order dua arah BUY STOP dan SELL STOP.
3. Untuk BUY STOP di Harga Offer pasang angka Price +20 di atas price “Open”, TP dan SL kosongkan dahulu.
4. Untuk SELL STOP di Harga Bid pasang angka Price -20 di bawah price “Open”, TP dan SL kosongkan dahulu.
5.Check sore hari setelah Pasar London buka (buka jam 14.00), apabila salah satu Pending Order tereksekusi, langsung pasang TP 100 dan SL 30-40 pips. Pending Order arah yang lain jangan di “Cancel” dahulu, karena sifat GBP/JPY yang dapat reversal 60 pips, sehingga bisa mengaktifkan Pending Order satunya.
6.Check malam hari menjelang Pasar New York buka (jam 19.00), bila running price sudah bergerak benar dan mencapai 60-100 pips berarti arah sudah benar, maka TP dan SL bisa dimaintance (TP ditambah, SL kejar TP). Trus, Pending Order yg satunya di “Cancel” karena kepastian arah sudah benar.
7. Apabila ternyata price reversal, setelah pending order 1 kesentuh terus pending order ke-2 kesentuh, maka akan Loss 30 pips, tapi gak popo karena biasanya akan terbayar oleh arah lainnya yang bergerak > 30 (60-100-an pips).
8. Bila kurang pede, coba dulu di Virtual, dicoba-coba dulu, bila udah yakin gola gokin, Go LIVE.
Udah gitu doang, simple kan ? Cuma nulisnya yg susah nii hehehe….
Salam Sukses
Hal-hal yang menarik adalah :
1. Pedoman Jum’at & Senin:
jika di hari Jum’at Down maka di Senin Up
jika di hari Jum’at Up maka di Senin Up s/d masa sideways
2. Pantau News/Meeting BoJ dan BoE –> efek pergerakan sangat besar ( > 200 pips), terutama BoE dan BoJ Meeting à tentu saja ya ? qqqqqqq……
3. Pantau Indikator Ekonomi BoE dan BoJ –> efek pergerakan besar (100-200 pips)
4. Masa Sideways 2-3 hari, dengan daily range = 60 pips, setelah sideways meluncurrr…. Itu berarti pergerakan running price yang dijaga sebesar 60-an pips. Jadi waspada jika GJ udah sideways 2-3 hari, di hari ketiga biasanya akan meluncur.
5. Bila price bergerak cepat dalam 1 hari (8-10 jam) mencapai 100-an pips, maka akan berbalik arah (reversal)
6. Jika running price bergerak dua arah reversal 60-80 pips, (< 100 pips), pergerakan ke-3 akan meluncur.
TIPS TRADING:
Persiapan:
1.Trading-lah hanya menjelang News GBP atau JPY, lebih aman lagi bila menjelang BoE atau BoJ Meeting.
2.Perhatikan apakah trend searah dengan GBP/USD dan USD/JPY, karena 3 pair ini berkorelasi positif dan searah, bahkan terhadap USD/JPY, Gajah berkorelasi sangat kuat +80 s/d +90-an. Korelasi negatif pada UJ dan GJ hanya dalam hitungan menit (15-30 menit), dan bukan Jam atau Hari. Sehingga lebih bijak jika pantau price GU dan UJ.
3.Perhatikan apakah GJ sdg masa sideways (2-3 hari), tandanya sideways à si Gajah naik-turun bingung sebesar 60-70 pips. Kalo nggak, lebih enak cek-nya pakai Bolingger (20). Kalo running price masuk saluran tertutup datar (deep tunnel), nah berarti si Gajah sedang sideways. Bila tidak sideways ok langsung entry, bila sideways siap2 di hari ke-2 dan 3.
Mengingat Inggris berkarakter kaku, keras dan dingin, sedangkan Jepang berkarakter keras, panas tapi luwe, maka sulit memprediksi pergerakan harga karena karakternya yg bertolak belakang 180 derajat, sehingga metoda scalping terlalu berisiko. Metoda yang tepat adalah sistem trapping dengan menggunakan Pending Order kombinasi Hegding (2 arah). Udah tahu caranya kan ? hanya saja untuk GBP/JPY pending ordernya sangat unik, begini :
1. Cek di pagi hari, berapa nilai price “Open” di Marketiva.
2. Di siang hari (jam 11.00 - 13.00 WIB), ambil Pending Order dua arah BUY STOP dan SELL STOP.
3. Untuk BUY STOP di Harga Offer pasang angka Price +20 di atas price “Open”, TP dan SL kosongkan dahulu.
4. Untuk SELL STOP di Harga Bid pasang angka Price -20 di bawah price “Open”, TP dan SL kosongkan dahulu.
5.Check sore hari setelah Pasar London buka (buka jam 14.00), apabila salah satu Pending Order tereksekusi, langsung pasang TP 100 dan SL 30-40 pips. Pending Order arah yang lain jangan di “Cancel” dahulu, karena sifat GBP/JPY yang dapat reversal 60 pips, sehingga bisa mengaktifkan Pending Order satunya.
6.Check malam hari menjelang Pasar New York buka (jam 19.00), bila running price sudah bergerak benar dan mencapai 60-100 pips berarti arah sudah benar, maka TP dan SL bisa dimaintance (TP ditambah, SL kejar TP). Trus, Pending Order yg satunya di “Cancel” karena kepastian arah sudah benar.
7. Apabila ternyata price reversal, setelah pending order 1 kesentuh terus pending order ke-2 kesentuh, maka akan Loss 30 pips, tapi gak popo karena biasanya akan terbayar oleh arah lainnya yang bergerak > 30 (60-100-an pips).
8. Bila kurang pede, coba dulu di Virtual, dicoba-coba dulu, bila udah yakin gola gokin, Go LIVE.
Udah gitu doang, simple kan ? Cuma nulisnya yg susah nii hehehe….
Salam Sukses
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